Predictions that gas prices will rise to $5 a gallon or higher by Memorial Day are running rampant.

Nationally, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline has jumped nearly 30 cents in the past month to $3.76 a gallon, according to AAA.

A spike to $5 a gallon for the national average by the summer would mean that the rise in gas prices over the next few months would have to exceed the 8 percent climb we've seen over the past four weeks.

Is it possible? Perhaps. Inevitable? Not really.

"There's nothing inevitable about it," says IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh, speaking on the sidelines of the CERAWeek Energy Conference in Houston. "To a large extent it depends on what happens in the Middle East."

If tensions between the West and Iran escalate further and result in a supply disruption from OPEC's second largest oil producer, then oil prices (Brent crude futures [ CLCV1 92.53  -1.45 (-1.54%) ], specifically) could spike $30 to $40, Behravesh says, and gas prices could hit $5.

"But that's about a 20 percent scenario," he says. "The most likely scenario is that we get to $4.25 a gallon in the peak driving season."

Prices are already at $4.25 a gallon or higher in some parts of the country.

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