The countries with the least to lose from leaving the euro aren't the ones you think - and that could be bad news for the euro.

Think the euro zone will break up? Hardly anyone else does either, at least not after that European Union summit.

David Woo, head of global rates and currency research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has looked at the euro zone through the lens of game theory, and he begs to differ.

"Everybody more or less assumes that worse comes to worst, we’ll wind up with eurobonds," Woo told CNBC.com. "That simply is not an accurate representation of the political or economic considerations on the table right now."

Woo has looked at the economic situation in each of the eleven largest euro zone countries, and assessed the likely impact of a euro zone exit on their balance sheets, borrowing costs, growth, and political stability.

The conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that strong countries like Germany and Austria could leave the euro zone without too much trauma, while the weaker peripheral countries need the stability of the euro.

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