Widlitz adds it is also key for analysts to start looking at the shape of their inventories. Last year’s unusually warm winter season left many retailers with a full stock of winter clothes and they can’t afford for the same thing to happen this year.
Dana Telsey is the CEO and Chief Research Officer at the Telsey Advisory Group. High on her watch-list this year will be weather. She notes last year was the warmest Black Friday weekend in five years. People just weren’t in the mood to shop for winter clothes.
Other things Telsey says retailers are watching include the unemployment rate and the level of foreign tourism to the U.S. If unemployment goes up sales go down, if tourism to the U.S. picks up, that could be a bright spot.
But because of all the economic uncertainty Telsey says, “we expect inventory levels will be lower, as retailers are dealing with more macro uncertainty and that is leading them to be more cautious. An upcoming challenging political season, volatile tourist flows, an uncertain Europe and Asian business landscape, and a cautious consumer is leading to more careful inventory buys.”
Telsey’s top picks for the holiday season include Michael Kors. She also likes Anne Taylor and Chicos if for no other reason than because Coldwater Creek and Talbots are faring so poorly.
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