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Calm Before Storm? What Low VIX May Mean for Stocks
10 Jul 2012 EDT - CNBC.com
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But Hogan thinks investors also may have become immune to the seemingly endless fits and starts in Europe's rescue plans , as well as the political machinations in Washington that likely only will be resolved after the November presidential election .

"Everything that's going on has been going on for a long time," he says. "In terms of the euro zone debt issue, it's a two-year-old problem that seems to get to the edge of the precipice and then pull back."

That mindset, though, could be trouble for the market.

Over the last two years, each time the market has reached similar levels as now it preceded a sharp spike in volatility, which in turn is always a signal that stocks are heading sharply lower.

The VIX traded at nearly an identical level in early July 2011 then doubled in a month's time, signaling a messy correction in the Standard & Poor's 500 that didn't come to a halt until the Federal Reservestepped in with an easing program called Operation Twist.

Any piece of unforeseen negative news could generate the same reaction.

"With such a low level of fear in the market, the negative reaction will be much more exacerbated. The concern is that if anything goes wrong we could have a fairly sharp selloff in the next couple of months," says Lance Roberts, chief strategist at StreetTalk Advisors, a Houston-based active portfolio management firm.

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