Second-quarter earnings could go a long way toward showing whether the  much-ballyhooed "green shoots" are real or merely illusions masking deeper economic problems.

Since the recession began, investors have been treating earnings cycles gingerly, hoping that companies can beat severely diminished expectations rather than daring to wish for signs of actual growth.

But that could change in the coming round of reports, which will be watched closely for real signs of a turnaround.

"The negative numbers not being as bad as they were last month is not good enough any more," said Michael Cohn, chief investment strategist at Atlantis Asset Management in New York. "What you want to see is incremental progress instead of decreasing awfulness. That's why the market is stuck."

Getting the market unstuck since its meteoric rise from the March lows has proven a difficult business. The Dow is off about 5.5 percent from its closing high on June 12, which marked the highest the bluechip average had reached since Jan. 6. The index has traded through the same roughly 500-point range since mid-May.

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