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More Hope for Homebuilders? Not Really
CNBC.com | November 19, 2009 | 12:32 PM EST

The latest American Institute of Architects (AIA) Billings Index was released yesterday showing an increase in inquiries but a slight decrease in billings.  Inquiries hit their highest level since August 2008, right before Lehman's collapse and the market's nosedive.

The AIA conducts its monthly "Work on the Boards" survey to gauge changes in activity.  The results tend to be be a leading indicator for construction activity 9-12 months down the road.  Although the index focuses on commercial activity, it has also moved in line with residential construction as well.  The chart below, shows the S&P Home Builders Index compared to the AIA numbers over the past 2 two years.

So does the rise in billings mean potential growth for homebuilders like Pulte Homes [ PHM 11.13  +0.25 (+2.30%) ], Hovnanian [ HOV 3.64  +0.09 (+2.54%) ] or KB Homes [ KBH 15.45  +0.53 (+3.55%) ]?  On a national level the billings index was up to 46.1, but remained below the 50 marker which is the threshold for growing / shrinking demand.  On a regional level, the AIA billing numbers were all below 50 as well; improved billings in the South drove the overall increase.

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