1. Lloyd Blankfein will retire as CEO of Goldman Sachs.
Blankfein is exhausted after serving as chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs since June 2006. He has weathered the credit bubble of 2007, the financial crisis , the transformation of the firm away from proprietary trading, financial reform, and a life-or-death lawsuit with the SEC. Many people feel Goldman needs post-crisis leadership — and I wouldn’t be surprised if Blankfein comes to agree with them next year.
(By the way, last year, I predicted that JPMorgan Chase's
Jamie Dimon would retire. So maybe Blankfein is safe. In any case, I’m doubling down and predicting Dimon retires in 2012.)
2. Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will continue but the euro will survive.
European leaders still think that if they stop the contagion by bailing out one country, they won't have to bail out the others. They talk about deepening their fiscal and political ties but have no agreement about what this would mean. There’s simply no end in sight for the crisis in Europe .Page 1 of 3 | Next Page