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Henes: A Greek Tragedy in the Making?
CNBC.com | January 30, 2012 | 11:43 AM EST

On March 20th, Greece owes $18.5 billion to its bondholders. It does not have the money to make this payment and, without a bailout from its partners in Europe, Greece will default.

The default will not be “voluntary,” whatever that means; but, rather will be hard, dramatic and real.

CDS will be triggered and the world will watch to observe the repercussions. The chorus is singing that a Greek default will have little or no impact on the markets or other eurozone nations. The argument goes that Greece is tiny and an $18.5 billion default is a fly on the back of an elephant. Maybe so. Or, maybe Europe should listen to a seer and “beware of the Ides of March!”

Now, the Ides of March falls on either March 13th or March 15th, but for Europe, that faithful day may just be March 20th. There are two primary questions: will a default by Greece actually occur? And, if a default occurs, what will happen?

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