The witching hour that could determine whether Greece defaults or not is Thursday afternoon, and that will hang over markets until it's known whether enough private investors accept a debt restructuring deal.
Private sector investors have until 3 p.m. Eastern time to decide on participation in the Greek debt relief deal, and if fewer than 75 percent agree, the country could head towards a default that ultimately could trigger credit default swaps.
How much that would roil markets is up for debate. Some traders think the repercussions would be substantial. "It's hard to tell. You just don't know if someone's in trouble. It doesn't appear so, but you don't want to be too complacent," said Alan Ruskin, head of G10 currency strategy at Deutsche Bank.
Thursday's top economic headline is the weekly jobless claims report, expected to come in at about the same 350,000 level as last week. The Bank of England and European Central Bank also meet ahead of the U.S. opening bell and are not expected to make any moves.
"It's all Greece. Everybody is waiting for the headline to see if the worst case scenario is off the table," said Daniel Greenhaus, global market strategist with BTIG. "The 10 percent chance it doesn’t work out is a huge hit to the market."
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