It's all about a federal Europe and the commonweal. Members can fall out. The debt crisis has opened the door to fiscal cooperation, and meddling in other states' affair is now the acceptable norm. The common currency has to remain relatively strong, because the dollar is done, and the world — at least for now — needs an alternative to the yuan or rupee.
I'm a tough grader, so I give myself a B for getting four out of five correct .
1. The economy slogs along with subpar growth.
The factors I cited pretty much played out. GDP through three quarters is 1.70 percent (weaker than my forecast of 2.25 percent but estimates for the fourth quarter range from 2.50-3.00 percent). Bad global weather — seriously — made a difference.
2. Unemployment will range between 8.5 percent and 9.0 percent, most likely averaging near the higher end.
I was a bit optimistic about the low end (8.8 percent was the lowest), but the average is spot on — 9 percent.
3. Deflation, not inflation, will guide policy.
Th Fed didn't cite deflation concerns outright, but everything abut its policymaking suggested them.
4. Democratic shakeup.
Grade: C-Page 2 of 3 | Prev Page | Next Page