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As the Farnborough Airshow readies to open its gates to trade visitors, signs for aircraft manufacturers are not good.

Unlike last year’s sister show in Paris , aircraft orders are not expected to reach similar record levels .

Indeed, based on a review of airline modernization, expansion plans and market sentiment, confirmed orders and options should not exceed 600 aircraft.

With the exception of Turkish Airlines, where a decision is imminent on its choice of either the A380 or B747-800 jet, we should also expect that a big share of orders will come from aircraft lessors. In Paris, their share was 15 percent, but this year it could easily reach 50 percent.

So why shouldn’t we expect airlines to take center stage at this year’s event?

First of all, both Airbus, a unit of EADS and Boeing announced their plans for revamped versions of their respective narrowbody-jet programs, the B737 and A320, in 2011.

Both were well received and a flurry of orders over the past 20 months inflated their order books to unprecedented levels. Nothing as exciting this year, though Boeing may still win additional orders for their B737 MAX.

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