Other studies in New Jersey, Connecticut and Rhode Island have also failed to offer proof that taxes are the main driver of out-migration by the top earners. (See here and here). In some states, weather is a bigger driver of out-migration by the wealthy than taxes.

Still, with top earners paying the largest share of taxes in many high-income states, many politicians don't want to take the risk of raising tax rates further.

Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said President Obama would ask Congress Monday to extend tax cuts for those making $250,000 or more. In fact, it was for those making $250,000 or less.

-By CNBC's Robert FrankFollow Robert Frank on Twitter: @robtfrank

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